I wrote on this yesterday, but a few points bear repeating and stating. In both North Carolina and Florida, Dems lead in early voting. But the devil is in the details here. In North Carolina, Democrats lead Republicans by 305,000 votes, But remember in the last election, Obama led by 447,000 votes and still lost to Romney in that state. This morning in North Carolina, one poll has them tied and two have Clinton up by 1 or 2 points… well within the margin of error. People on the ground there say Trump will take the state. Same in Florida. Dems only have a .5 percent advantage there and that vote will turn on the Hispanic vote… there has been a 100 percent increase in early turnout for Hispanics and they usually vote on Election Day. But nothing is for certain. If they turn out, it could go to Clinton. Or they could vote for Trump. Florida is definitely a tossup, but Trump must be pleased over the numbers.
I will say it again… the polls pretty much lean towards Clinton. But if you look at the crowds that show up for Trump, something seems massively askew here. Today will be an insane day as lines are never ending for people to cast their votes and then all of us will be waiting for the results as they come in. Trump must win Florida to win this election. This is a much different election than 2012 and the rules don’t apply to this one.
From the Daily Mail:
Early voting numbers in North Carolina and Florida – two states that Donald Trump needs to win – suggest that Hillary Clinton may be underperforming President Barack Obama in 2012, while Trump is doing better than GOP nominee Mitt Romney.
In North Carolina, 305,000 fewer Republicans have turned out. However, Republican voters were trailing Democrats by 447,000 four years before and Romney won the state by 97,000, as Republican voters more prone to come out on Election Day then head to the polls early.
In Florida, Democrats are ahead by just around 33,000 votes. But, with 6.1 million early votes cast, that lead only amounts to .5 percentage points of the in-person early vote total. Back in 2012, Democrats had a 3.7 point advantage in early voting, which was enough to hold back Republican Mitt Romney from taking the state.
Florida is weird – 25 percent, a whopping one-in-four of the early voters, are first-time voters in the state. It remains to be seen if Trump’s crowds will translate into votes.
The demographics of the early voting in North Carolina are more favorable to Trump, with an uptick in white voters, fewer black voters and less interested millennials, including young Democrats, all potentially helping him out, according to CNN. This election could literally go either way. I wouldn’t count Trump out just yet.
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