The Mike Pence presidency is coming sooner rather than later, one presidential historian is predicting.
Ronald Feinman, who wrote Assassinations, Threats, and the American Presidency: From Andrew Jackson to Barack Obama, predicts in a blog post that President Donald Trump is most likely to serve fewer than 200 days in office.
At the most, Feinman gives Trump about 16 months before his presidency ends, most likely when Pence pushes Trump out of office.
Feinman says the messy resignation of former National Security Adviser Michael Flynn is a sign that Trump’s presidency is in deep trouble.
Historian says Donald Trump’s presidency likely to be second shortest in history https://t.co/HMV09hFWFZ
— Ronald Feinman (@polithist) February 16, 2017
Feinman seeks to make the case that Trump is alarming insiders.
“Many foreign policy professionals are shaking their head at Trump’s inappropriate behavior and language every time he speaks in public, or issues a Twitter comment, and his instability and recklessness,” Feinman writes.
Although Trump has said he triggered Flynn’s departure, Feinman reads the White House tea leaves differently, and writes that Pence was the instigator and as a result of deposing Flynn, “Pence is already asserting himself with Trump.”
Pence’s “demeanor and body language (suggests) he is often uncomfortable with Trump’s freewheeling and careless behavior,” Feinman alleges.
Thus, when Congress investigates what Flynn said and to whom he said it, “there will be calls for Trump to resign or be impeached,” Feinman predicts.
There is also the “possibility of future Congressional action against Donald Trump if his mental behavior continues to disturb the top leadership of the Republican Party and the foreign policy establishment,” Feinman predicts.
Should that happen, Feinman knows what can happen next.
“Pence could, even if Trump vehemently opposed it, invoke the 25th Amendment, Section 4 with the approval of a majority of the cabinet, which would make Pence ‘Acting President.’” Feinman writes.
Pence, Feinman insists, “could make a convincing case that it is too risky to leave Trump in power.”
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