Remember all of those left-skewing polls that were showing Democrat presidential nominee Hillary Clinton with a gigantic, almost-insurmountable lead? Yes, well, about those … it seems that the one poll called the “most accurate presidential poll” by several media sources was dropping jaws by giving Donald Trump a slight edge.
The Investor’s Business Daily/TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence (TIPP) tracking poll has been typically accurate for years, predicting the last three elections correctly. Updated every morning at 6 a.m., it gave a 1-point lead to the Republican nominee going into last night’s debate.
“After more than a week of blistering attacks from Democrats, celebrities and the press, Donald Trump has managed to pull ahead of Hillary Clinton by a 1.3 percentage point margin — 41.3 percent to 40 percent — in a four-way matchup, according to the new IBD/TIPP poll released today,” the results read.
“Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson got 7.6 percent and Green Party candidate Jill Stein got 5.5 percent. The results are the first in the IBD/TIPP presidential tracking poll. Daily updates start Thursday and will continue until the election.”
Perhaps surprisingly, in a two-way matchup, Clinton was beating Trump — a sign that this year’s trend towards third-party candidates might help Trump as opposed to hurting him.
This seems to contradict a lot of polls that we’ve seen recently, but a lot of those polls have simply been wrong on purpose. Take, for example, the Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll released earlier this week that showed Hillary holding an immense 11-point lead nationally over Trump.
It seemed pretty damning until you looked at the sampling:
A whopping 46 percent of the poll’s sample voted for Obama in 2012 as opposed to 32 percent voting for Romney. Considering that Romney lost by only 4 points that year, it’s pretty clear that liberals were dramatically oversampled.
Daily tracking polls — in particular, the Los Angeles Times poll and the IBD/TIPP poll — have been showing a much closer race than these other polls. That’s what the media isn’t reporting — and what might bite them come Nov. 8.
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